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July 03, 2024

Key Themes for the Second Half of 2024

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July 03, 2024

Key Themes for the Second Half of 2024


Mid-Year

Key Themes for the Second Half of 2024

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July 03, 2024

 
 

The second half of 2024 will be impacted by interest rates, inflation and the U.S. presidential election, among other factors. But as we look across the investment landscape, we see compelling opportunities in fixed income, equities and alternatives. In this edition of The BEAT, we outline key themes for the second half of 2024.

 
 
  1. Fiscal Policy Dominance
    The potential dominance of fiscal policy over monetary policy keeps some investors up at night. Why? Financial markets have many mechanisms to price monetary policy uncertainties but have none for fiscal policy. Anyone ever heard of fiscal policy futures? No, because they don’t exist.

    “Fiscal policy dominance” is a top theme in 2H24 because we think it will take root over the course of the next six months, and impact the market into the U.S. presidential election and fiscal policy related to taxes and spending well into 2025. Fiscal largesse has not yet unanchored inflation expectations; but, the next six to 18 months will determine whether that is the case.

  2. U.S. Dollar
    The U.S. government’s spending, debt levels, high interest payments and twin deficits have raised concerns about the valuation of the U.S. dollar and its stability as a global reserve currency. In fact, some central banks are seeking alternative reserve currencies, while the global business community is working to create trade blocs and alternate payment methods for international commerce.

    Our research over the last 50 years shows that high deficits have not consistently led to a depreciation of the dollar. This is probably because the U.S. has monetary sovereignty, strong institutions and control over its own currency. The value of the dollar is influenced by factors beyond just fiscal deficits.

  3. The Case for EMD
    Emerging market debt (EMD) is an asset class that offers the potential for increased income, meaningful diversification and enhanced returns. Yet EMD is also under owned by investors and perhaps never more so than today. We believe the current EMD opportunity set offers compelling value based on the combination of the macro environment, valuations, investor flows and the prevalence of reform stories. Hard and local currency segments offer meaningful value outright, especially when compared with most areas of the DM fixed income market.

  4. Equity Outlook
    The forward P/E for the S&P 500 is currently 20.5x, up from 19.7x at the beginning of the year. Both justify a year-end for the S&P 500 closer to 6,000 than 5,000 while using 2025 estimates. But historically the market has a decline of around 10% at least once a year. The last one was in the fall of 2023, so the market is due.

    On another note, reelection years are good for stocks normally as presidents running for reelection prime the economy with fiscal spending. That has direct implications for sectors we favor. The Infrastructure Act should benefit Industrials and Materials while the Chips Act will likely help Semiconductors and Equipment.

  5. Bank Loans and CLOs
    Bank loans and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have yields that are currently twice that of core bond market proxies and about equal to long-term stock market results. Loans are anti-bond in structure (no duration, coupons float) and can complement portfolios across a spectrum of use cases: Higher coupons than investment-grade bonds; larger and more liquid companies than present in private credit; trading cheap relative to the 60/40.

    Though we see sunny skies for credit, loans can act as an umbrella for portfolios if rainy days arrive, but won’t hurt your day at the beach if they don’t.

  6. Alternative Investments
    Alternative investments continue to undergo an encouraging transformation across their market valuations and prospects for return generation. A clear sequence has emerged that was initially triggered by the sharp shift in the interest rate regime in 2022. The early beneficiary of this unique change in market conditions was private credit, where early performance improvements were also observed in the hedge funds space. We also believe the transformation has now entered the phase during which the improved opportunities extend to the alternative equity markets, including private equity and real estate.
 
 
 
The Portfolio Solutions Group is a comprehensive multi-asset business, with activity across all asset strategies and types (traditional and alternative), through solutions that span fully liquid (public assets), comprehensive (public and private assets) and fully private portfolios. Offerings are delivered via a managed portfolio or model, in discretionary or advisory format.
 
 
 
 
 

Risk Considerations

There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio. Please be aware that this portfolio may be subject to certain additional risks. Asset Allocation/Diversification does not protect you against a loss in a particular market; however it allows you to spread that risk across various asset classes In general, equity securities’ values fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Investments in foreign markets entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, and market risks. The risks of investing in emerging market countries are greater than risks associated with investments in foreign developed countries. Fixed-income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. Mortgage- and asset-backed securities (MBS and ABS) are sensitive to early prepayment risk and a higher risk of default and may be hard to value and difficult to sell (liquidity risk). They are also subject to credit, market and interest rate risks. Certain U.S. government securities, such as those issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are not backed by the full faith and credit of the United States. It is possible that these issuers will not have the funds to meet their payment obligations in the future. The issuer or governmental authority that controls the repayment of sovereign debt may not be willing or able to repay the principal and/or pay interest when due in accordance with the terms of such obligations. Investments in foreign markets entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, and market risks. The risks of investing in emerging market countries are greater than risks associated with investments in foreign developed countries. Real estate investment trusts are subject to risks similar to those associated with the direct ownership of real estate and they are sensitive to such factors as management skills and changes in tax laws. Restricted and illiquid securities may be more difficult to sell and value than publicly traded securities (liquidity risk). Derivative instruments can be illiquid, may disproportionately increase losses and may have a potentially large negative impact on performance. Trading in, and investment exposure to, the commodities markets may involve substantial risks and subject the Portfolio to greater volatility. Non-diversified portfolios often invest in a more limited number of issuers As such, changes in the financial condition or market value of a single issuer may cause greater volatility. By investing in investment company securities, the portfolio is subject to the underlying risks of that investment company’s portfolio securities. In addition to a Portfolio’s fees and expenses, a Portfolio generally would bear its share of the investment company’s fees and expenses. Alternative investments are intended for qualified investors only. Alternative investments, including hedge funds, provide limited liquidity and include, among other things, the risks inherent in investing in securities and derivatives, using leverage and engaging in short sales. An investment in an alternative investment fund can be speculative and should not constitute a complete investment program. This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy interests in any fund.

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